Under the disturbing headline "Bala Perdida" (stray bullet, ed), an article published in the Mexican monthly magazine “Proceso” tells of the killing of Kimberly Montiel, age 6, heading home by car with her father. They ran into a shootout, one of many. In a more neutrally titled article – “Violent beginning of the week” – I read about 27 deaths. "Four arrested," shouts another article telling of 4 young people, two of them minors, stopped in a car carrying the body of a beheaded man.

Stray bullets

I could go on, but would just be repeating what I wrote last year in the dossier on Mexico and its cartels, with their systematic violence, and their hands on the cities and people's lives. It is now more pertinent to report the open debate held in the Country about the institutions’ state of health and their ability to cope (or not) with increasingly aggressive attacks by drug traffickers.

A few months ago, the Capital hosted the presentation of a book with the noteworthy title: “Rumbo al Estado fallido?” (Going for Failed State?, ed.), by Jose Antonio Ortega Sanchez, a former executive of the Confederation of Mexican Industrials, currently president of the NGO “Seguridad, justicia y paz” (Safety, Justice and Peace), and civil rights attorney.

In his book, Ortega confirms the incredible figures of 34,000 murders over the last twelve years, placing the States of Chihuahua, Sinaloa and Durango among the top ten most dangerous areas in the world, together with Iraq and Afghanistan. During the presentation, Ortega said that the drug traffickers’ cartels are extending their scope daily, diversifying their activities; for example - kidnapping illegal migrants in transit - and are on their way to becoming Narcoinsurgentes, competing with the State for control over public affairs.

I am not in a position to confirm or refute these predictions, but signs of such development are obvious and many nationals talk about it, although strictly in confidence. How has it been possible to have allowed the cartels to achieve such a power in so few years, and let them tie a potentially fatal noose around the Country’s neck?

Drugs and more

Ortega's book makes use of irrefutable tables leading to important considerations. The first concerns the pace of the spread of occurrences. In Medellin, Colombia, it took 10 years of drug trafficker control to reach a 1000% increase in crimes. In Ciudad Juarez, this unenviable record was achieved in just 3 years.

Secondly, the progression of data on victims is just as evident: 1,300 dead in 2001; 1,776 in 2004; 2,837 in 2007; 9,635 in 2009. If we consider that, in the year 2000, Mexico supplied the U.S. with 50% of its cocaine, reaching 90% in 2009, we can better understand the figures and their obvious correlation.

Even the number of bomb attacks against the police have grown exponentially: 24 strikes in 2007, 39 in 2008, 116 in 2009. According to estimates, 10% of municipalities in states like Chihuahua, Sinaloa, Durango and Guerrero are under the direct control of drug traffickers. However, it is perhaps mistaken to refer only to drug trafficking. The Narcos have expanded their criminal business to kidnapping, extortion, gambling and the exploitation of prostitution. They control the great migration flows to the U.S., assaulting and robbing migrants, reducing them to slavery, raping women, and kidnapping children, who are never seen again. The suspicion that this happens with the complicity of police and politicians is virtually a certainty.

The Mexican drug traffickers are now exporting their own crime expertise to other countries, as evidenced by a similar evolution in El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras to that in Mexico.

The last striking bit of data, among many offered in the book, is the relationship between arrests and sentences resulting in detention, decreasing from 88% in 1997 to 59% in 2009. It must be noted that Ortega says he has worked exclusively using public and official data.

To justify the question mark in the title of his book, Ortega identifies specific actions to be undertaken as soon as possible to prevent the Country’s collapse. The issues are easy to agree with, ranging from Zero Tolerance against drug traffickers to reform of the judicial system; from the "purge" of corrupted policemen to strategic alliances with neighboring countries, up to the politicians’ proven commitment to lead an unyielding fight, but in full respect for human rights, even for those of criminals. Are these proposals realistic? Are they decisive?

Graveyardville

Ciudad Juarez has become the epitome of OC-victim Mexico. With a rate of 229 murders per 100,000 inhabitants for a total of 3,042 victims in 2010, the city ranks first in the world. Such figures emphasized in 3 years of independent research¹ carried out in every city in the world with more than 300,000 inhabitants. As a result, Ciudad Juarez outclasses Kandahar (170 murders per 100,000 inhabitants), ranking second, and Baghdad ("only" 22 per 100,000 inhabitants) in fiftieth place. The progression is horrendous, if compared with 2006: +941% in Ciudad Juarez, while Baghdad scoring -93%.

Unfortunately, Ciudad Juarez is not an isolated case. Three more Mexican cities join the top ten most violent cities in the world: Chihuahua (113), Mazatlan (89) and Culiacan (88). Moreover, if we expand the range to the first fifty cities reviewed, we must add Tepic, Torreón, Tijuana, Acapulco, Reynosa, Nuevo Laredo, Cuernavaca and Matamoros. Twelve out of fifty: no state can boast such a ranking!

If you switch from cities to states (or provinces / regions depending on each country’s local government structure), little changes. First place goes to Chihuahua (172 murders per 100,000 inhabitants), followed by seven other Mexican states in the top fifty, Sinaloa, Durango, Nayarit, Guerrero, Morelos, Tamaulipas and Baja California. Only Colombia is able to do worse, placing nine states in the standings, one more than in Mexico.

I believe there’s no need to comment; however, the "Seguridad justicia y paz" organization refutes most of data shown in the research and blames the governors of Oaxaca, Tamaulipas, Nayarit, Coahuila, Durango, Mexico and Chihuahua for having watering down the data to pretend that the situation is less serious than it actually is. The most striking case occurred in the state of Oaxaca, which had recorded 752 murders in 2009 and only 191 in 2010.

In September 2010, only one murder is cited in the report, while the newspapers had reported at least fifteen. In Tamaulipas, sixty-five murders were reported: seven less than the seventy-two deaths occurring during the massacre of San Fernando migrants that took place in August 2010².

The governor of Chihuahua distrusts the newspapers’ "exaggerated" figures. More than 3,000 killed. The Public Prosecutor filed 3,514. Where does the honorable governor live?

Official figures for 2010 for the whole country report 20,000 deaths (17 per 100,000 inhabitants), but the government and the official propaganda reduce the number to 12 per 100,000. Maybe they are just poor at Math. "Seguridad justicia y paz" counted 24,903, i.e. 22 per 100,000, a figure that places Mexico among the 13 most violent countries in the world. The Mexican NGO adds: “Not to mention the desaparecidos, supposedly more than 1,700 people only in the states of Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon. Moreover, in Ciudad Juarez, the rate of perpetrators arrested, sentenced and convicted reaches 4%”, and concludes its argument with a rhetorical question: “Is it clear where the problem is?”

A missing judicial system

Prof. Samuel Gonzalez Ruiz, a professor of criminal law at the UNAM, offers a clear assessment on the rule of law in Mexico: “We need a thorough reform of the entire system, addressing the excess of protection ensured by present laws (guarantism), the inefficiency of court proceedings and procedures, and the feudalization of the Courts by the political power and influential interests. At the same time, the fight against drug trafficking and, simultaneously, corruption must be tightened.”

If we move from macro to micro, we find obvious evidence as well as relevant news.

In January 2011, fifteen beheaded corpses were found in Acapulco. They were the foot soldiers of the city cartel, attacked by "Chapo" Guzman’s troops. The victims were two teenagers, a car-washer, three builders, a policeman, a street cleaner, and a mechanic, and the others were unemployed. The authorities and the upper middle class often respond to such an event by saying: "Let them kill each other." Who are they exactly?

At his inauguration, President Calderon declared war on drug trafficking. Today, we can say without a shadow of a doubt that he lost. But the real question is: could he have won? Did he have any idea about who and what were the weapons at his disposal?

Justice in Mexico is inefficient and corrupt; police investigations remain unfinished. Mexico lacks national coordination, a database and scientific support worthy of their name. How could he have expected to win?

The use of torture in prisons is common, and gangs are allowed out at night to kill rivals. Mass escapes take place even in maximum security prisons. The Banks receive parcels of money of uncertain (or quite certain) origin, but very few dare to activate controls or to report the suspects. The population is left to the mercy of an agonizing situation.

The few collaborators with justice revealed that for years, police chiefs and army officers have escorted drugs loads and protected the cartels’ bosses.

Consumption: the new plague

Brecht used to say “How can you win when your enemy leads the way?”. Control over the Mexican territory by the criminals has spread like wildfire, as they openly declare their warring intentions to the institutions. Drug use in Mexico has always been a secondary issue. Today, however, it is becoming a social evil.

Rehabilitation centers have popped up, many with advanced programs and good professionalism. But it is a novelty that does not please the cartels. Here then, the next escalation of threats culminated with the massacre in Chihuahua. Thirty hooded gunmen broke into the local drug rehab center, took 19 men out, forced them to lie down and riddled them with bullets (June 10, 1011, ed.). Isn’t that a signal?

The youngsters are the weakest link in the chain. They are subject to pressures and represent the highest share of victims. Today, cartels aim and strike at schools, kidnap students leaving their lessons, enter the classrooms to threaten people, shoot and throw bombs on the campuses. The situation has worsened so much in recent months that the National Association of Universities and Higher Education has drafted a self-defense manual for teachers and students. Seventy or more pages of recommendations, directions, requests to the authorities, to try to limit the problem, but also to defend, where possible, the principle of autonomy of teaching.

The reality is that parents are not only terrified on Saturday night, when their kids leave to go to the disco, but are every day, when they see them leave the house to go to school. Nor do they feel reassured by the increasingly frequent incursions into the classrooms by armed policemen to seize real or alleged drug traffickers. Teachers complain about such an unbearable atmosphere, and claim that they are working in an increasingly dreadful environment.

So far, the government has responded to the demands from the self-defense handbook by stating that there are no resources to invest in safety, a further advantage to the crime they claim to be fighting.

Grounds for failure

Rene Delgado, a columnist for the “Siglo,” does not hesitate to remove the question mark in the title of Ortega’s book and maintains: «From abroad, you can perceive Mexico as a failed state, but here, we do not. Why?» It’s a question that I asked myself and forwarded to some Mexican friends. I try to summarize the arguments I drew.

There is considerable inconsistency between the perception of the country by common people and by the political powers, the economic powers and even a small, yet not negligible, share of the academics. The latter half tries to significantly minimize the problems, a practice then snapped up by the media. In many other places in the world, there is a tendency to deny the existence of the Mafia phenomenon, limiting and almost confining it to folklore. In Mexico, before the growth of criminal power, the mantra was «aqui no pasa nada». (there’s nothing going on here). The reasons underlying such reckless conduct are many, but they could be summed up in 5 points:

• if the country ignores what is happening there, reality does not exist

• if everything is pure imagination, what happens in reality doesn’t matter

• if organized crime becomes the source of all evil, we can continue with our policy

• the economic crisis is the real problem, the rest are minor issues

• drug-related crimes and the impact of the economic crisis on the country pull its attention from our conduct and foolishness

In other words, when it comes to Politically-related problems, Mexican politicians have deliberately passed the buck to crime and the externally-generated crisis. We refer to corruption and the unwillingness to address the social imperfections that freeze the country, among others. Such insanity has its rules, but the message is clear to all: the state has failed.

The Mexican state is already fragile due to the loss of control over its territory, the loss of the monopoly of force and taxation, made especially fragile due to the gap between the government, the political parties, and the real needs of society. However, it would be unfair to only address the central political power. All governmental authorities are involved, together.

Before the onset of the crime emergency, the necessary consolidation between different actors did not occur. While the central government stood inactive, so did state governments, the legislature and the judiciary system, as well.

Similarly, no response was given to the economic crisis that continues to erode the country with disastrous effects for the weakest. The message was that everyone had to pinch and scrape, waiting for the negative wave to pass. But the political and economic elites have not lost an ounce of their privileges and state elections currently underway have seen the usual depressing litany of promises fed by enormous, if not insane, campaign expenses.

Delgado says: "When the civil society reaches desperation, it is no longer able to sort out the state and its actors from the detractors. There is where the states fail. Amazingly, the power elite in our country is heading in this direction."

"Ni uno más!"

In Mexico, it is time for state elections, to renew the governments. A good opportunity recover policies that fight drug trafficking and, consequently, the risk of failure? Let's see.

In Michoacan, the local Industrials’ Confederation launched the idea of ​​canceling the elections, postponing them until better times. Their argument is that crime and economic crisis do not offer a favorable environment, therefore, it would be better to push them back. The local parties spent time in answering that this is pure folly. It would mean handing over the keys of popular sovereignty to organized crime. Fortunately, the newspapers and civil society are mobilizing and creating a growing opposition front against the insane proposal that, so far, seems to have been quashed.

We also came to learn that the three leaders of the major parties – PRI-PAN-PRD – had met to evaluate the proposal, but then discarded it. Then came proposal number two, again from Michoacan’s Confederation of Industrials: the parties will agree on and submit a single list so as to defuse the campaign clash.

The same injury, with insult added to it. This too was rejected with disdain by public opinion, once again coming before the politicians finishing studying it.

Beyond cheap Politics, we still have the shocking data of a political force that, in a situation like the above, sees the expansion of democracy as anything but a solution. What is this, if not a further sign of the disintegration of the state?

On March 27^th, the corpses of seven young men were found in Cuernavaca, Morelos state, tortured and then murdered. Among them, the son of journalist and poet Javier Sicilia, Juan Francisco. In a touching memory, which is also a harsh indictment, his father writes an open letter in the magazine “Proceso” "to politicians and criminals." Note the double address, which in itself, says it all.

«I do not wish, in this letter, to speak with you about the virtues of my son, which were immense, nor of those of the other boys that I saw flourish at his side, studying, playing, loving, growing, to serve, like so many other boys, this country that you all have shamed [...] you, politicians [...] in your fight for power you have shamed the fabric of the nation. Because in middle of this badly proposed, badly made, badly led war, of this war that has put the country in a state of emergency, you have been incapable […] of creating the consensus that the nation needs to find the unity without which this country will not be able to escape. […] Because the corruption of the judicial institutions generates the complicity with crime and the impunity to commit it, because […] that corruption […] demonstrates the failure of the State. […] Because the citizenry has lost confidence in its governors, its police, its Army, and is afraid and in pain. […] There is no life, Albert Camus wrote, without persuasion and without peace, and the history of Mexico today only knows intimidation, suffering, distrust and the fear that one day another son or daughter of another family will be debased and massacred. […] Today, after so many crimes supported, when the destroyed body of my son and his friends has brought the citizenry to mobilize anew, […] we must speak with our bodies, with our walk, with our cry of indignation. […] Additionally, I opine that we must return dignity to this nation³».

The mobilization was great, even impressive. Javier Sicilia founded the association “Pacto ciudadano por la paz con justicia y dignidad” (Citizens’ Pact for Peace with Justice and Dignity, ed), that attended the national meeting of the alternative organizations held in Mexico City on May 28^th and 29^th. This meeting was attended by over 50 associations. The final document, approved unanimously, includes very easy-to-share values and analyses. It aims at stopping the journey to failure and tragedy. Its foundation is the construction of new forms of struggle to reorganize social life by breaking the obsolete paradigms of individualism and selfishness.

The ruling class, denounced the document, «does business with organized crime and social violence, while denying the opportunity of many young people to have a decent future, urging them into forced emigration, or pushing them into crime. The politicians are mediocre opportunists lacking any moral values. The disgraceful election campaign underway is further evidence of that, and risks resulting in the usual fraud.»

Democratic opposition, states the document, must be all-inclusive and articulated in every state and every city hall. Priority must be given in the fight to the opportunity to establish Community and cooperative institutions. It must seek social justice and development opportunities for all. It must defend the right to education and work, with particular attention to Youth. Sustainable development needs to envisage wise energy consumption, denying the use of nuclear energy and paying attention to sound consumption of water, land and air. Words of hope, holy words, in such moral and material wickedness.

But are they only words? Will they end up in the trashcan of good intentions? Who knows? The battle is certainly hard, but it is the only alternative to the failure of the state. That failure may not yet have been declared, but it undoubtedly looms over Mexico with its gloomy presence. Only a tough and aware opposition, a genuinely popular struggle, can stop it.